We may not know how to predict volcanic eruptions on Earth but it turns out we are reasonably good at predicting eruptions elsewhere in the existence . The Lokivolcano on Io , Jupiter ’s innermost molten moon , is expected to erupt at any moment consort to erratic scientists ’ foretelling .
The prediction that Loki is probable to erupt mid - September 2019 was presented this week at the European Planetary Science Congress & Division for Planetary Sciences of the American Astronomical SocietyJoint Meeting2019 in Geneva by Dr Julie Rathbun of the Planetary Science Institute , who has been studying Loki for a farsighted time .
In her2002 newspaper , she showed that throughout the 1990s an eruption happened every 540 days , and using over two decades of observations she has continued to make predictions and take how the periodicity stop and changes over time . Currently , it appears to break open every 475 days .
“ Loki is the largest and most herculean volcano on Io , so bright in the infrared frequency that we can detect it using telescope on the solid ground , ” Dr Rathbun said in astatement . “ If this behaviour remains the same , Loki should flare up in September 2019 , around the same time as the EPSC - DPS Joint Meeting 2019 . We correctly predicted that the last clap would occur in May of 2018 . ”
Rathbun suggest Loki is so predictable because of its size . Loki is a vast volcanic natural depression 202 kilometer ( 126 miles ) across . It ’s a lava lake covered by a lean solidify crust , which break apart once in a while . The extensive size is believed to make Loki less affected by the small but numerous complications that steady volcanos have .
“ We think that Loki could be predictable because it is so large . Because of its size , basic physics are likely to dominate when it erupts , so the lowly complications that affect smaller vent are likely to not strike Loki as much , ” Rathbun said .
“ However , " she cautioned , " you have to be heedful because Loki is call after a cut-up god and the vent has not been get it on to behave itself . In the early 2000s , once the 540 - day rule was detected , Loki ’s conduct changed and did not exhibit periodic behavior again until about 2013 . ”
Io is the mostvolcanically activeplace in the Solar System . Its interior high temperature is not the product of radioactive decay like on Earth but due to the tidal forces Jupiter and fellow lunar month Europa and Ganymede maintain on Io .
